After a week, the Taliban in Afghanistan took over after US withdrawal; the immediate neighbor-India is yet to comment on the situation. So far India is more into evacuating its citizens from Kabul, however, doesn’t have any clear stand on whether it will accept the Taliban in the neighbourhood as legitimate rulers of Afghanistan. As the foothold of the Taliban is strengthening with some important countries like Russia, China and Pakistan backing it, the situation doesn’t bring any positive vibes for India.

More than any country in the world, India is likely to face a tough situation if the Taliban survives in Afghanistan.  The Taliban is facing the only trouble this time in Panjishir province. Rest of the country is in its control. Taliban, which seems to be a substantially improved version of 2001, is not openly commenting on any country at the moment. But apprehensions are growing that Pakistan and China will take the Taliban on board and attempt to trouble India on multiple fronts. Given the India’s position in the past and standing by the US in the Afghan war India do fear some trouble from the neighbourhood.

“Notwithstanding the current triumphalism in Pakistan at “overthrowing” the US-backed order in Kabul and “pushing” India out of Afghanistan, Delhi can afford to step back and signal that it can wait,” writes C Raja Mohan in his weekly column at The Indian Express.

India is one among the largest investors in Afghanistan and has spent nearly 14 billion dollars on various infrastructure projects. After the US withdrew from the country, the chaotic situation forced India to close its embassy along with all the other countries and bring back its citizens and staff working over there.

In the last several years, India was gaining political and diplomatic support in the country over Pakistan. The former president Mohammad Ashraf Ghani who fled the country after Taliban entered Kabul was heavily weighing towards India.

Pakistan was often accusing Ghani and India of using Afghanistan against Pakistan and providing safe sanctuary to the Tehreek Taliban Pakistan-the militant outfit accused of carrying deadly attacks in Pakistan.

The Taliban has constituted a three member commission to probe the allegations after Pakistan formally lodged the complaint with Taliban recently.

“We have been taking up the issue of the use of Afghan soil by the TTP for terrorist activities in Pakistan with the previous Afghan government and we will continue raising the issue with the future Afghan government as well to ensure that TTP is not provided any space in Afghanistan to operate against Pakistan,” Pakistani Foreign Ministry’s spokesperson Zahid Hafeez Chaudhri said on Friday.

The Voice of America also reported and quoted the sources in Pakistan establishment in which the Taliban has warned TTP not to use the Afghanistan soil against Pakistan for terrorist activities.

“TTP leaders are being warned (by the Afghan Taliban Commission) to settle their problems with Pakistan and return to the country along with their families in exchange for a possible amnesty by the Pakistani government,” Voice of America reported citing sources in Islamabad.

With these assurances from the Taliban, the security and political establishment in Pakistan is likely to feel more confident. The bigger question, however, is will Pakistan and Taliban stay silent and will not allow its soil to be used against India in Kashmir.

Experts say, Unlikely!

But C Raja Mohan says that India can bet on passions since Pakistan is on the winning side. “For one, Rawalpindi is some distance away from establishing a new political order dominated by the Taliban. Then there is the challenge of securing the international legitimacy of a Pakistan-backed order in Afghanistan and sustaining its future,” he writes.

But there is a time to establish a political and diplomatic relation with Afghanistan. In the meantime, the security challenges are already knocking on the doors of India. In the aftermath of US withdrawal from Afghanistan and Pakistan taking the driving seat in the country, the militancy in Kashmir may rise in coming months with ostensible support from China.

The former GoC 15 Corps, Lt Gen (R) Syed Ata Hasnain always disagreed with troop’s withdrawal from Kashmir. He always insists that security challenges in Kashmir will grow once the US pullout takes place in Afghanistan.

“There is no possibility of lowering the security grid in Kashmir. Kashmir will have a direct impact of the Afghanistan situation since Pakistan is backing the Taliban forces,” he had said.

Meanwhile, the BBC report also maintains that Taliban is succeeding in Afghanistan since Pakistan is launching the proxy war with the support of ISI.

“The Afghanistan is known as a graveyard for empires. But Pakistan has a bigger role in proving so. That is evident from the two wars against the Soviet Union and America recently in Afghanistan. Both failed to stop proxy war by Pakistan in the country and suffered defeat,” the report reads.

India and Pakistan relation are presently all time low especially after New Delhi abrogated Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir and bifurcated the erstwhile state into two Union Territories. Not only Pakistan, China also opposed the move by Narender Modi government and deployed its troops over the contested Line of Actual Control in Ladakh region.

Amid the strained relations with two other nuclear powers of the region, India must brace up for bigger security challenges.